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The second national semifinal between the #1 Michigan Wolverines and the #1 Arizona Wildcats feels like a heavyweight fight that will last a full twelve rounds, or as Michigan Head Coach Dusty May said yesterday, "a game that is likely to be decided in the 38th or 39th minute." Make the jump to read my position by position comparisons and analysis as to what team has the edge during this epic Final Four showdown between Michigan and Arizona.
Position by Position Breakdown:
#1 Michigan Wolverines vs. #1 Arizona Wildcats
Back when I was a kid, I used to love reading the Chicago newspapers prior to the Bulls playoffs series. The papers would always do position by position breakdowns for the upcoming playoff series, with head shots of the players and a comparison of each player's game. The papers would then explain which team had an edge at that position, and then make a series prediction. In a similar vein, I am going to break down both Final Four games position by position, the benches and coaching.
Point Guard:
Michigan's Eliot Cadeau vs. Arizona's Brayden Burries
After two years at North Carolina, Cadeau transferred to Michigan, where he has had a solid season. Cadeau keeps defenses honest with his outside shooting and driving, and is a thorn in the side of opponents with his chippy and edgy play. Michigan is at its best when Cadeau is making just enough shots but not forcing his offense. Burries is an all-world freshman who plays under control. He can get into the lane, stop on a dime and hit ridiculously tough floaters. He has a beautiful three-pointer when he gets into his release. His game is very reminiscent of Devin Booker on the Phoenix Suns. Cadeau must make it a goal to get under Burries and play the Arizona freshman very physical. Edge: Arizona
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Off Guard:
Michigan's Nimari Burnett vs. Arizona's Jaden Bradley
Burnett is a solid fifth starter for the Wolverines, capable of hitting set threes and playing strong defense. Bradley is a do-it-all senior for the Wildcats, who can impact the game on both ends, including taking over offensively when necessary and upping the tempo with his aggressive defense. While Burnett is a piece for the Wolverines, Bradley is a key cog for the Wildcats, arguably the most important player for Arizona to set a tone on both ends. Also at the end of a game, Bradley is not afraid to take and make a big shot. Edge: Arizona.
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Small Forward:
Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg vs. Arizona's Ivan Kharchenkov
Lendeborg has been the best and most unstoppable player so far in the NCAA Tournament. At 6'9", Yaxel has the luxury of playing small forward for a loaded Michigan front line. When Lendeborg gets down hill and to the rim, good luck stopping him. He also is a solid three-point shooter. Defensively, Lendeborg is a menace and a bully who will pick up the opponents' best player full court. Don't be surprised if he sees time early on Burries to try and get into the freshman's body and head. For the Wildcats, Kharchenkov is a well-built freshman who plays with no fear and great physicality. He loves to get to the rim. Still, Kharchenkov is giving up 20 pounds to Lendeborg, a man among boys and the biggest matchup nightmare in the Final Four. Edge: Michigan
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Power Forward:
Michigan's Morez Johnson Jr. vs. Arizona's Koa Peat
The winner of this game could swing on who wins this matchup. With his chiseled body and junkyard-dog work ethic, Johnson is impossible to keep out of the lane and off the boards. When Johnson is scoring efficiently, actively involved and playing with energy, Michigan elevates to a whole another level. After a strong first round game, Johnson has struggled a bit for Michigan, missing a lot of chippies that are normally gimmes and pressing a bit. Michigan needs Johnson to exert his physicality on the outstanding Peat, who is giving up two inches at 6'8'' in comparison to Johnson's 6'10''. Peat is a bowling ball in the lane, capable of going to work from the free throw line in. He is a baller who never gets too high or low. He just goes out and makes big plays. Peat is nearly averaging 18 points a game this tournament. Michigan must make scoring tough on Peat, who with Burries, have been Arizona's best players in the tournament. Edge: Arizona (slightly).
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Center:
Michigan's Aday Mara vs. Arizona's Motiejus Krivas
Like the battle at power forward, tomorrow's matchup at center is going to be huge, literally and figuratively. At 7'2'' Krivas is one of a few players who can match the 7'3" Mara's height. Krivas can appear a bit brutish at times, but he is quite skilled and tough, with a soft touch and ability to play through contact. Mara is a highly-skilled center with a lovely half hook, feathery touch with both hands, and excellent passing skills. When Mara is involved and clicking with Johnson, the Wolverines' frontline cannot be stopped. Michigan needs to get Mara involved early and not forget about his unique skill set. Fouls between Krivas and Mara could be critical tomorrow night. Edge: Michigan (slightly)
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The Benches:
Michigan's Trey McKenney vs. Arizona's Tobe Awaka
Both Michigan and Arizona go about seven deep in their rotations. Michigan was sparked last weekend by the freshman scorer Trey McKenney and the tested veteran Roddy Gayle, Jr., both of whom were connecting from deep and lifting the Wolverines immediately upon entering the game. Arizona sixth man Tobe Awaka would start on most every team and is a undersized physical specimen who brings physicality and toughness down low. Guard Anthony Dell'Orso is a three-point threat and spark off the bench, someone who is not afraid to mix it up. Both benches are quite capable. Michigan is going to need McKenney to keep scoring while Arizona is going to need Awaka's body to bang with Michigan's nightmare frontline and Dell'Orso to splash a couple of threes off the bench. Edge: Even
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The Coaches:
Michigan's Dusty May vs. Arizona's Tommy Lloyd
There's a reason why prestigious North Carolina wants either of these guys as their next Head Coach. May and Lloyd are two of the top five young and overall coaches in the game, but they aren't going anywhere. In just his second season at Michigan, May has already taken Michigan back to the Final Four, building a juggernaut through the transfer portal. In his fifth season at Arizona, Lloyd has finally gotten Arizona back to the Final Four after a 25-year wait, though the Wildcats have been a powerhouse since he took over the reins in Tucson. Both coaches have incredible pulses for how their teams are playing. Lloyd has been cool, calm and collected with this steady and unflappable Arizona team while a focused May keeps an at-times distracted Michigan team on point. May has now brought two schools to the Final Four, Florida Atlantic and Michigan. Lloyd has never been a Head Coach in the Final Four, though he was pretty much Mark Few's right-hand man at Gonzaga during two Final Four runs. Both of these coaches are brilliant tacticians. It would be a disservice to give the edge to either one of them. Edge: Even.
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Early Prediction:
Michigan Wins A 12-Round Fight
Like the first game between Illinois and UCONN, this game could go to either team. This figures to be a classic, with the winner the prohibited favorite on Monday night. Ultimately, Michigan has been a monster all season long, with an incredibly constructed front court that will be just too much for Arizona. Both teams like to run, and Michigan is especially dangerous when it gets on the break and hits threes in transition. Arizona has enough bodies to throw at Lendeborg, who seems to be a man possessed at this point and will still be the best player on the court late, moving the Wolverines one step closer to its first title since 1989.
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