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Illinois and UCONN seem to be two evenly-matched teams heading into tomorrow's Final Four game. Could this game come down to the matchup at power forward between Illinois freshman David Mirkovic and UCONN senior Alex Karaban? Which player plays better could be the difference as to which team advances to the title game on Monday night. Make the jump to read my positional comparisons and analysis as to which team has the edge during this compelling Final Four game between the Illini Fighting Illini and the UCONN Huskies.
Position by Position Breakdown:
#3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. #2 Connecticut Huskies
Back when I was a kid, I used to love reading the Chicago newspapers prior to the Bulls playoffs series. The papers would always do position by position breakdowns for the upcoming playoff series, with head shots of the players and a comparison. The papers would then explain which team had an edge at that position, and then make a series prediction. In a similar vein, I am going to break down both Final Four games position by position, the benches and coaching.
Point Guard:
Illinois' Keaton Wagler vs. UCONN's Silas Demary
Wagler rose from unheralded recruit to second-team All American during his unprecedented freshman season. Wagler is a much different player than UCONN is accustomed to from last November's game at Madison Square Garden, now the primary ball handler as opposed to an off guard for the Illini. Wagler can score at all three levels, from deep, in the lane and at the rim. He has been facing each opponent's best and most physical defender for more than two months now and has not blinked yet. Expect UCONN to throw a bunch of different defenders at Wagler, beginning with the tough-as-nails Demary, who is recovering from a nasty high ankle sprain suffered in the Big East Tournament championship game against St. John's. According to UCONN Head Coach Dan Hurley, Demary should be at about 90% for the Final Four. At his best, Demary is a ball hawk with a complementary mid-range game. Illinois was fortunate that Demary was in foul trouble during the early season matchup. While Demary showed a lot of heart last week in the Elite Eight, playing great defense and hitting two threes when UCONN couldn't throw the ball in the ocean, Wagler is a special player who has been Illinois' most consistent player all season. Edge: Illinois.
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Off Guard:
Illinois' Kylan Boswell vs. UCONN's Solo Ball
Interestingly enough, Boswell and Ball were the primary focal points during the first game between these two teams, with Boswell scoring a game-high 25 points and Ball leading UCONN with 15 points. Both players are not the same offensive forces as they were back in November. Boswell has struggled to find much offense after breaking his hand in early January. Ball has struggled with his outside shooting all season long, especially in the tournament. With that in mind, both players are strong defenders who bring much physicality to the floor. Boswell has become more of a leader for Illinois at this point of the season. Ball is still a key focal point on offense, with his ability to get to the basket and put pressure at the rim. Ultimately, Ball is the more versatile player, and don't be surprised if he guards Wagler for a good portion of the game. If Ball can hit a couple of threes, UCONN's offense will open up much more. Edge: UCONN.
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Shooting Guard:
Illinois' Jake Davis vs. UCONN's Braylon Mullins
Back in the first game between Illinois and UCONN, both Davis and Mullins barely played. Davis did not enter the game until there was about 8:43 remaining while Mullins was suiting up in his first ever collegiate game after dealing with an early-season ankle injury. Davis entered Illinois' starting lineup in January after Boswell was injured, and hasn't left since. Davis is a good standstill/side-step shooter from three who does a lot of little things like crash the offensive boards from the weak side. He is more of a glue guy and leader who plays his role quite well. Mullins is the more explosive offensive player, able to hit the three and score off the bounce. Of course, Mullins hit the miraculous three against Duke to send UCONN to the Final Four. While UCONN relies on Mullins more to hit shots, Illinois is content with Davis doing the dirty work and hitting a shot here and there. Ultimately, Mullins is the better and more skilled player than Davis, who is the better defender. Both players are from Indianapolis and returning home for the Final Four. If either player can hit a couple of threes, his team will be better off on Saturday. Ultimately, Mullins is more likely to do so than Davis, who cannot create offense off the dribble. Edge: UCONN.
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Power Forward:
Illinois' David Mirkovic vs. UCONN's Alex Karaban
The winner at this position could determine the victor of Saturday's game. A precocious freshman, Mirkovic is a tremendous competitor who impacts the game on both ends of the floor. He can hit the three and score down low, as well as facilitate offense with his dribbling and passing On defense, Mirkovic loves to bang and hit the glass. He has an uncanny ability to recover from mistakes and move onto the next play. Like Wagler, no moment has been too big for the freshman this season. The ultimate winner, Karaban started on UCONN's last two title teams in 2023 and 2024. While his shot has been hit or miss during the tournament, Karaban impacts winning in so many ways, with his constant off-the-ball movement, passing and defense. Karaban has no fear to take and make a big shot late in games. How Mirkovic does chasing Karaban around screens will be very interesting. While Mirkovic is slow moving on the court, he is crafty and incredibly smart. Ultimately, both teams need Mirkovic and Karaban, respectively, to hit several threes for their offenses to really open up. While Karaban gets the edge with his experience, Mirkovic is no joke, a true gamer who does not back down from anyone. Edge: Even.
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Center:
Illinois' Tomislav Ivisic vs. UCONN's Tarris Reed Jr.
After a frustrating regular season, Tomislav has been huge for Illinois during the NCAA Tournament, having four big games for the Illini. Ivisic is known for his ability to space the defense and stretch the floor with his pick-and-pop three-point shooting. He also has developed into a more comfortable and efficient player in the post. Illinois has done a better job of getting Ivisic shots down low in March after he was a forgotten part of the offense for far too long during the Big Ten season. Tomi has also been way more engaged defensively and on the boards this tournament. Reed has been UCONN's best player during the NCAA Tournament, dominating on the boards and scoring on the block. His footwork is quite impressive and helps him create separation from taller centers like an Ivisic. Reed has also been a nifty facilitator and passer in the tournament. UCONN Head Coach Dan Hurley is running some beautiful sets to get Reed easy baskets. Tomi and his twin brother Zvonimir must use their length to make things hard on Reed. Edge: UCONN (slightly).
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Bench:
Illinois' Andrej Stojakovic vs. UCONN's Malachi Smith
Illinois has gotten a huge lift this tournament from Stojakovic, who was a starter for most of the season before suffering an ankle injury during the end of January. In March, Stojakovic has been instant offense off the bench, getting to the rim at will and hitting jumpers in the mid-range and in the lane. Even his three-point shot has looked better and been on point. Illinois also brings in 7'2'' Zvonimir Ivisic, Big Z, to block shots and catch lobs at the rim, and senior glue guy Ben Humrichous, who came to Illinois with the reputation of being a three-point shooter but has grown into an excellent defender. UCONN is playing about two guys off the bench at the moment, with Dayton and Gonzaga transfer Malachi Smith providing an offensive spark (he scored 14 points against Illinois in November) and versatile forward Jayden Ross providing tremendous activity on the defensive end. UCONN will also play center Eric Reibe in limited minutes. Reibe had an effective game against Illinois back in November, but hasn't been a big part of the rotation in March. Edge: Illinois
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Coaching:
Illinois' Brad Underwood vs. UCONN's Dan Hurley
Underwood has broken through and gotten Illinois to the Final Four in his ninth season. Underwood and his staff have been excellent this tournament at making halftime adjustments, specifically at using Illinois' advantage as the tallest team in the country by placing a greater emphasis on post touches. Underwood should be commended for the job he has done this season. As for Hurley, this is his finest coaching job yet, taking a less-talented UCONN team to the Final Four. Simply put, Hurley is the best coach in college basketball, and no one is better in the NCAA Tournament, as seen during last week's thrilling comeback against Duke. Hurley has taken out some great coaches this tournament in Furman's Bob Richey, UCLA's Mick Cronin, Michigan State's Tom Izzo, and Duke's Jon Scheyer. No coach is scarier to face in March than Hurley, whose teams are always prepared and must be killed to be eliminated in the NCAA Tournament, as three Final Fours in four years demonstrate. Edge: UCONN
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Early Prediction:
UCONN Survives A Close Game in the Last Minute
This game can go either way. Illinois is as or even more talented than UCONN, which is not as dominant as its back-to-back championship teams in 2023 and 2024. Still, with that said, it is hard to bet against a Dan Hurley coached team when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. This game could come down to which team finds its three-point shooting stroke in the dome and which team extends possessions on the offensive glass. If the game is close late, Hurley has enough tricks in his pocket to get UCONN open looks that could be the difference in winning and losing. For Illinois to fulfill its dream of becoming a national champion, the Illini will have to go through UCONN, the measuring stick in all of college basketball. While Illinois can certainly do it, UCONN is just another animal in the tournament and will survive one more game.
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