While Michigan was unable to win the Big Ten Tournament and had some close calls against Wisconsin and Ohio State during tight conference tourney victories, the #1 seed (#3 overall) Wolverines seemed to have drawn the most favorable bracket, with the Elite Eight seeming highly likely and the Final Four very well within the realm of possibility, even without injured guard L.J. Cason. Make the jump to read 10 observations and my predictions about the West Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
- The Midwest seems to be the easiest region for all of the #1 seeds. Michigan has not looked like the juggernaut it did earlier in the year, yet the Wolverines got a great bracket, which was deserved following this amazing season for the Maize and Blue. While a second-round matchup against St. Louis might make for fun story lines with bespectacled center Robbie Avila going against the Wolverines' incredibly talented front court of Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson, Jr., and Aday Mara, the Wolverines should handle the Billikins or Georgia Bulldogs. Additionally, potential Sweet Sixteen opponents for Michigan have serious issues. #4 Alabama will be without guard (and second-leading scorer) Aden Holloway, at least for the start of the tournament, due to legal issues. #5 Texas Tech has been without its best player J.T. Toppin, who is injured for the rest of the season, and has been skidding into the tournament. Even if Michigan gets a Cinderella like Akron or Hofstra, the Wolverines are just too big. #2 seed Iowa State is looming in the Elite Eight, but Michigan's frontline is just too imposing. As for Michigan's guard play, it has worried me all year. Eliot Cadeau, Nimari Burnett, Roddy Gayle and Trey McKinney have talent and should be enough to advance out of the Midwest. However, is this guard group good enough to win it all? What Michigan needs most is to get Johnson, Jr., more involved as the super sophomore was quiet in the Big Ten Tournament semifinal and championship game. Also Lendeborg needs to be more engaged and not just float on the court. For as dominant as Yaxel can be, there are stretches when he goes quiet for too long.
| | | |
2. Don't sleep on the Cyclones of Iowa State. Head Coach T.J. Otzelberger is a fantastic coach who has Iowa State as a #2 seed for the second time in three tournaments. Two years ago, the Cyclones were upset by #3 Illinois in the Sweet Sixteen. Iowa State is led by junior forward Milan Momcilovic (17.6 points) and senior guard Tamin Lipsey (13.3 points), both of whom started in the Sweet Sixteen against the Illini. The Cyclones also get 16.9 points a game from forward Joshua Jefferson. It seems like Iowa State gets forgotten in the Big 12 with Arizona and Houston in the same conference, but remember this Cyclones team can play with anyone. Ask Purdue, Houston and Arizona after watching the highlights below.
| | | |
3. Can Virginia center Ugonna Onyenso carry the Cavaliers far with his shot-blocking at the rim? I have not seen much of Virginia, but was really impressed during the Cavaliers' loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament Final. Onyenso, who began his career at Kentucky, gave Duke star Cam Boozer fits at the rim and finished with an incredible 9 (!) blocks. His presence reminds me of what Tyrus Thomas did for LSU all the way back during the 2006 NCAA Tournament, wreaking havoc at the rack and spurring the Tigers to a surprise Final Four run. Virginia looks like a #3 seed that is dangerous and can get to an Elite Eight, and a UVA matchup with Onyenso against Michigan's front line would be fun. By the way, first-year head coach Ryan Odom has done an incredible job with the Cavaliers. He is one of the best young coaches in the sport, as was seen when he led UMBC past his current employer all the way back during the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Honestly, Otzelberger and Odom don't get enough respect from the national media.
| | |
4. Nate Oats is losing credibility, not as a coach, but as a CEO of his Alabama program. The Alabama head coach is, honestly, one of the top five coaches in the sport. He is an offensive genius. Yet there is always drama with his program, beginning with the Brandon Miller situation in 2022. This year Oats has rubbed a lot of people wrong by adding a G-League player mid-season. Now Holloway is currently off the team due to an arrest for alleged possession of two pounds of marijuana. If there is a thing such as karma, it seems that Alabama is due for it this year, perhaps with an upset against Winthrop in the first round. Still, I don't see it happening because Oats seems so singularly focused upon winning, even if it is to the detriment of his public image. With that said, this Alabama team will get no farther than a Sweet Sixteen.
| | |
5. Could this be a region where a #12 and #13 meet in the second round, with one advancing to the Sweet Sixteen? Given Texas Tech being without Toppin, the #5 Red Raiders are a popular pick to get upset against #12 Akron, which is making its third-straight NCAA Tournament appearance under Head Coach Jon Groce (formerly of Illinois). Akron has never won an NCAA Tournament game and would seem to be due. The Zips are also experienced and deep. With that said, Texas Tech Head Coach Grant McCasland is another young coach who doesn't get enough respect. If there ever was year for Texas Tech to get bounced in its opening game, this would seem to be it, yet McCasland usually gets a lot out of his teams in March. I am expecting him to squeeze out one win for the Red Raiders. As for Alabama, even without Holloway, the Crimson Tide should have enough firepower with LaBaron Philon to down Hofstra. Simply put, Alabama shoots the three with great glee and is a hard team to keep up with. Even with all of the issues, Alabama will probably advance out of the first weekend. That's how much faith I have in Oats as an in-game head coach. But if there ever was a bracket for a #12 and #13 second-round game, it could happen here if the Toppin injury and the 'Bama off-the-court issues spill onto the court.
| | |
6. Believe in Miami (OH)! It was apparent during the Redhawks' First-Four victory against SMU that this now 32-1 should not have been in the play-in game. Miami (OH) came out with a lot of energy in the first half and connected on 16 of 41 threes. See my live game recap. If the Redhawks can bounce back without a mental or physical hangover, and get up three-point shots, they will have a very good chance to upset #6 Tennessee, who is led by pro prospect Nate Ament. Of course, Rick Barnes' Volunteer squads are excellent at dictating a slow, grind-it-out pace so this figures to be a fascinating game of clashing styles on Friday.
| | |
7. Santa Clara/Kentucky is a must-watch game! From what I saw of Santa Clara during a very competitive loss to Gonzaga in the WCC Final last week, the Broncos are dangerous. Making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1996 (30 years ago!), Santa Clara is led by veteran Head Coach Herb Sendek. As for Kentucky, it has been a very disappointing team this year under second-year Head Coach Mark Pope, who was the starting center on Kentucky's national championship team in 1996 (30 years ago!). This game feels like an upset in the making.
| | |
8. What happens to Mark Pope if Kentucky loses to Santa Clara? Kentucky is a whole different beast, and fans in Lexington already seem restless with Pope in his second season. It would be shocking if Pope was fired, but it is Kentucky!
| | |
9. Avila finally makes the NCAA Tournament. The big man was a folk hero at Indiana State two years ago before moving on with his head coach Josh Schertz to SLU. Avila evokes Cameron Krutwig vibes from Loyola (IL). I am hoping SLU gets past Georgia so I can see how Avila fares against Michigan's bigs. Also, Schertz has said he is staying at SLU, even though he is one of the hottest coaching candidates around. It will be interesting to watch his coaching abilities on a national stage.
| | |
10. Michigan is destined to make the Final Four but not win the national championship. But don't worry Wolverines' fans. With what Dusty May has built in just two seasons, the Wolverines will win its first title since 1989 in due time (within the next three seasons). Ultimately, I think Michigan lacks dynamic perimeter talent to win it all this season, unless Lendeborg takes his game to another level, Johnson, Jr., is an unstoppable force on the boards, and Mara stays out of foul trouble as the tournament proceeds.
| | |
My Predictions for the First Round
- Michigan defeats play-in winner.
- St. Louis defeats Georgia.
- Texas Tech defeats Akron.
- Alabama defeats Hostra.
- Miami (OH) defeats Tennessee.
- Virginia defeats Wright State.
- Santa Clara defeats Kentucky.
- Iowa State defeats Tennessee State.
My Predictions for the Second Round
- Michigan defeats St. Louis.
- Alabama defeats Texas Tech.
- Miami (OH) defeats Virginia.
- Iowa State defeats Santa Clara.
My Predictions for the Sweet Sixteen
- Michigan defeats Alabama.
- Iowa State defeats Miami (OH).
My Predictions for the Elite Eight
- Michigan defeats Iowa State. (*Note: Michigan will lose in the national semifinal to Arizona).
RSS Feed