2026 NCAA Tournament, National Championship Game Preview: #2 Connecticut Huskies vs #1 Michigan Wolverines

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"This is the end, my only friend, the end." There is always a sense of anticipation and sadness the morning of the National Championship Game of college basketball, as a new team is soon crowned champion while the last three weeks of basketball madness and bliss come to an end. Tonight the 2026 NCAA Tournament reaches it resolution, with the #2 Connecticut Huskies facing the #1 Michigan Wolverines. UCONN is seeking its third national title in four seasons while Michigan is shooting for its first championship since 1989. Which team will earn its sixth and final victory in the tournament, culminating with a well-earned championship? Make the jump to read my position-by-position breakdown and prediction for tonight's National Championship Game between the UCONN Huskies and the Michigan Wolverines. 

#2 Connecticut Huskies: Road to the National Championship

While not playing its best basketball entering the NCAA Tournament, the Connecticut Huskies have displayed its championship mettle these past three weeks, with three of its five victories coming against Big Ten teams, defeating:

• #15 Furman, 82-71. Read my live running reactions here. 
• #7 UCLA, 73-57. 
• #3 Michigan State, 67-63. Read my live running reactions here. 
• #1 Duke, 73-72. Read my updates here. 
• #3 Illinois, 71-62. Read my updates here. 

Will UCONN beat a fourth Big Ten opponent to earn its seventh championship in men's college basketball tonight? 

#1 Michigan Wolverines: Road to the National Championship

Michigan has been the most dominant team all tournament, winning every game by double digits and seeming to be a team of destiny, defeating: 

• #16 Howard, 101-80. 
  
• #9 St. Louis, 95-72. Read my live running reactions here. 
• #4 Alabama, 90-77. Read my live running reactions here. 
  
• #6 Tennessee, 95-62. Read my game updates here. 
• #1 Arizona, 91-73. Read my game updates here. 
  

Can Michigan finish what has seemed inevitable since the end of November? 

#2 Connecticut Huskies: Championship Game History 

Prior to 1999, UCONN had never reached a Final Four. Since then, the Huskies have reached eight Final Fours. With the exception of 2009, UCONN has advanced to the National Championship during each Final Four appearance. The Huskies are an amazing 6-0 in title games, with Head Coach Jim Calhoun having three victories, Kevin Ollie one victory, and Dan Hurley earning two victories. Below are highlights of UCONN's championship game victories in 1999, 2004, 2011, 2014, 2023 and 2024. 

#1 Michigan Wolverines: Championship Game History 

Michigan is playing in its eighth National Championship Game, its first since 2018. The Wolverines are 1-6 in championship games, with the school's lone victory occurring in 1989 with an overtime victory against Seton Hall. That Wolverines team was coached by Interim Head Coach Steve Fisher and led by a slew of future NBA players in Glen Rice, Rumeal Robinson, Loy Vaught, Terry Mills and Sean Higgins. Fischer reached two more title games in 1992 and 1993, with his Fab Five teams of Chris Webber, Juwan Howard, Jalen Rose, Jimmy King and Ray Jackson losing to Duke and North Carolina, respectively. Under former Head Coach John Beilein, Michigan made two title games, a close loss to Louisville in 2013 and a demolition at the hands of an all-time Villanova team in 2018. 

#2 Connecticut Huskies vs. #1 Michigan Wolverines

Position-by-Position Breakdown 

Michigan is favored by 7.5 points tonight, though it will be shocking if UCONN can keep the game in single digits given the Wolverines' average margin of victory being 21.6 points so far this tournament. The Wolverines looked like an absolute machine on Saturday night against #1 Arizona, controlling the game from the tip and leading by as many as 30 points in the second half. UCONN had a stellar defensive effort against Illinois, trailing only once and leading by as many as 14 points in the second half before Illinois rallied to cut the deficit to no less than 4 points. 

Point Guard:

UCONN's Silas Demary Jr. vs. Michigan's Eliot Cadeau

Demary seemingly had a quiet game against Illinois on Saturday, but his stats tell a different story. While scoring just 7 points on 2-for-8 shooting (1-for-7 from three), Demary had 9 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals and 1 turnover while doing a commendable job guarding Illinois star freshman Keaton Wagler, who had 20 points but was just 2-for-10 from three. Coming off a serious ankle injury in the final of the Big East Tournament, Demary played 31 minutes on Saturday, which is a good sign of his improving health. For Michigan, Cadeau sparked with his defense on Saturday night, making things miserable for Arizona's back court of Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley. While Cadeau was just 2-for-14 from the field in the first half, he was 3-for-3 in the second half, with all of his makes being from beyond the arc. Cadeau finished with 13 points and a dazzling 10 assists, 5 rebounds and 4 assists, though he did have 6 turnovers. Often overshadowed by Michigan's imposing front line, Cadeau plays the game with a real edge and never lacks confidence or aggression. Expect that to continue tonight, especially if  Wolverines' star forward Yaxel Lendeborg is limited by injury. Edge: Michigan. 

Shooting Guard: 

UCONN's Braylon Mullins vs. Michigan's Nimari Burnett

Against Illinois Mullins continued his momentum from his miracle three against Duke in the Elite Eight, scoring 15 points on 5-for-14 from the field. Mullins was most dangerous from three, going 4-for-7 and hitting a dagger with just under a minute left to give UCONN a seven-point advantage. Mullins was very aggressive and confident against the Fighting Illini, with his ability to move off the ball and curl off screens causing a lot of problems. The Huskies are going to need Mullins to keep his rediscovered shooting stroke to pull of the upset. An underrated fifth starter for Michigan, the veteran Burnett ganged up with Cadeau to speed things up for Arizona's Burries and Bradley. Burnett chipped in 6 points, 4 rebounds and 1 steal on Saturday. Burnett does a great job of just doing his job, which is to defend and hit an occasional three or fast-break bucket. Tonight Burnett's goal will be to hang with the moving Mullins and bring physicality on the defensive end. Edge: UCONN. 

Small Forward:

UCONN's Solo Ball versus Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg 

Consider this the injured portion of tonight's title game. Ball, who is more of a point and off guard than a small forward, missed practice yesterday due to a foot issue. He was reportedly wearing a walking boot but is expected to play. Against Illinois Ball rediscovered his three-point shooting stroke that had been missing so far in March. He had 13 points on 3-for-7 from three and 5-for-11 from the field. Ball was very aggressive looking for his offense, which was a good sign. It will be interesting to see how Ball is able to move around the court as he is a focal point for the Huskies' offense and brings great energy on defense. For Lendeborg, Saturday was a nightmare day, with the exception of his team's victory. Lendeborg picked up two quick fouls in the game's first 1:30 and then injured his left knee with about nine minutes left in the first half. Lendeborg returned in the second half, though he was clearly hobbled. He still finished with 11 points (3-for-3 from three) in 15 minutes. Lendeborg is expected to play tonight, and whether he is 50-75% on the floor, he is still very dangerous. Michigan has more than enough options to cover for Lendeborg, who has been the team's best player all season and tourney long. Lendeborg has been a man on a mission this March, and just his presence on the court and ability to hit the three will be uplifting for an already laser-focused Wolverines' team. Edge: Michigan. 

Power Forward: 

UCONN's Alex Karaban versus Michigan's Morez Johnson Jr. 

For the second straight tournament game, Karaban struggled with his outside shooting on Saturday evening, hitting just 1-for-8 from the field, including six out of seven misses from three, and finishing with 9 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal in 35 minutes. Of course, Karaban's impact is not always seen in the box score as the veteran impacts winning with his defense, steadiness and experience. With that said, UCONN needs Karaban to have a better shooting and scoring night if it hopes to upset the Wolverines. Karaban's ability to move off the ball could be problematic for Michigan's Johnson, who does not have to do a lot of chasing, though he is capable of moving his feet and hedging screens. While not having as impactful of a tournament as expected, Johnson was solid against Arizona, finishing with 10 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists in 23 minutes. Michigan is going to need Johnson to pound the glass tonight as Karaban will struggle with his size and physicality. On championship game experience alone, Karaban gets the edge. However, he has been struggling offensively, and Johnson poses some major problems with his size. Edge: Even. 

Center: 

UCONN's Tarris Reed Jr. versus Michigan's Aday Mara

Reed began his career at Michigan before transferring to UCONN, where he has developed into a great center. Against Illinois Reed had a team-leading 17 points and 11 rebounds, with a strong start to the game but a much more quiet second half. Reed has been UCONN's best player all tourney, and the Huskies will need another strong game from him tonight against the Wolverines. At 6'11, Reed must stay out of foul trouble while guarding Michigan's super talented 7'3'' center Aday Mara, who had a dazzling 26 points on 11-for-16 from the field and 9 rebounds against Arizona. With Lendeborg out, Michigan made post touches to Mara a priority. Expect the Wolverines to do the same tonight. Mara has been known to pick up fouls as well so pay attention to the whistles early between these two big men. UCONN will try to space out Reed a bit on offense and see if he can use his dribbling and beautiful footwork to attack Mara. Expect Johnson to guard Reed as well. The battle between Reed and Mara is the most intriguing position battle in this game. Edge: Even. 

Bench: 

Michigan's Trey McKenney and Roddy Gayle Jr.

versus UCONN's Jayden Ross and Malachi Smith 

Michigan has been uplifted by the play of McKenney and Gayle Jr. who have had three straight tournament games where they have blazed offensively off the bench. McKenney had 16 points on 6-for-9 from the field, including 4-for-7 from three, on Saturday night. He is shooting the ball with extreme confidence and looking to score when he gets onto the court. Gayle has been equally awesome, scoring 9 points against Arizona. McKenney and Gayle have really upped their play in the tournament, which should offset the injured Lendeborg tonight. For UCONN, Jayden Ross hit two big threes in the first half against Illinois. UCONN would be ecstatic if he can do that again tonight while bringing his typically active defense. While not scoring in nine minutes due to foul trouble against the Fighting Illini, Smith has been a huge part of this UCONN team and will be looking to bounce back against Michigan. UCONN also threw in Eric Reibe and dusted off Jaylin Stewart for some spot minutes against Illinois. Due to his size, the 7'1'' Reibe will probably be needed against Michigan's imposing front line. Edge: Michigan. 

Coaching:

UCONN's Dan Hurley versus Michigan's Dusty May 

Tonight's National Championship Game features two of the best coaches in all of college basketball. UCONN is here because of Hurley, who has done his best coaching job with a flawed UCONN team. May is truly phenomenal, not only in building rosters but designing game plans and making adjustments. Having Hurley on the sidelines gives UCONN a shot tonight against May's superior Michigan team. Edge: UCONN. 

Prediction: Michigan 

It is only fitting that Michigan will have to defeat UCONN to become champions for the first time since 1989. College basketball has run through UCONN the past four tournaments, with the Huskies winning the whole thing in 2023 and 2024 and losing by just two points to eventual national champion Florida during last year's tournament. This UCONN team is not the level of the 2023 and 2024 teams while Michigan has looked the part of the one of the more dominant squads in recent college basketball history. 

Tonight's game will be dictated by defense. UCONN made things really tough for Illinois on Saturday night while the Wolverines are playing defense at a whole new level this tournament. UCONN must not turn the ball over and let Michigan get its transition going as that tends to lead to Wolvering scoring bursts. The Huskies will need to hit the three ball and get big games from Karaban, Reed and Mullins. Hurley's offense will get UCONN shots, will the Huskies hit them? On Saturday, they did. Illinois couldn't hit the three against the Huskies, but Michigan will be able to.

While UCONN will hang tight, Michigan is too good defensively and too dynamic offensively.  The Huskies were outrebounded by the Illini on Saturday night and must be closer on the boards against the Wolverines. UCONN cannot fall into a hole against Michigan like it did against Duke. This Michigan team will not take its foot off the gas pedal. Additionally, UCONN had several prolonged scoring droughts against Illinois. Similar results will be fatal against the explosive Wolverines. 

A lot will have to go right for UCONN and a lot will have to go wrong for Michigan for an upset to occur. Overall, Michigan is the more talented team that has dominated all tourney long. Hurley will keep the Huskies within striking distance for as long as possible, though this Michigan team will eventually overwhelm and win this game by twelve to sixteen points. In just two seasons, May will bring a national championship back to Ann Arbor, Michigan.