2026 NCAA Tournament Opening Weekend Final Reflections: What I Got Right and Wrong, What I Regret and Want to Forget

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Entering the Sweet Sixteen, 13 of 16 schools are still alive based upon my original predictions for the East, West, Midwest and South regions of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. With that said, I offer my apologies to Iowa, Tennessee and Arkansas, all of which I underestimated. Make the jump to read about some things I am glad, mad and even a little sad about regarding my original projections for the opening weekend. 

East Region Original Predictions and Current Reflections 

Predictions for the First Round 

• Duke beats Siena.
• Ohio State beats TCU. 
• St. John's beats Northern Iowa. 
• Kansas beats Cal Baptist. 
• Louisville beats South Florida. 
• Michigan State beats North Dakota State. 
• UCLA beats UCF. 
• UCONN beats Furman. 

Predictions for the Second Round 

• Duke beats Ohio State (make that TCU). 
  
• St. John's beats Kansas.
• Michigan State beats Louisville. 
  
• UCONN beats UCLA. 

Predictions for the Sweet Sixteen  

• St. John's beats Duke. 
  
• Michigan State beats UCONN.

Predictions for the Elite Eight

• St. John's beats Michigan State. (St. John's will upset Houston in the Fina Four, but lose to Arizona in the national championship game). 
  

I am glad that I was initially suspicious of the Duke Blue Devils getting to the Final Four as I had them losing in the Sweet Sixteen, and feel pretty good about this prediction based upon Jon Scheyer's squad's uninspiring first two games. I am mad that I didn't give Siena and Head Coach Gerry McNamara enough respect in its first round game, thinking the Saints would have no chance against Duke, though I am glad that McNamara has now been hired at his alma mater of Syracuse (I hope he takes some of his Siena players with him, beginning with Gavin Doty). Advancing St. John's past Duke, out of the East and into the National Championship game seems like my bad as I am worried that the Red Storm don't have consistent enough three-point shooting to storm past Kansas, Duke, Michigan State or UCONN, and likely Houston (talk about a murder's row of opponents). I am a bit mad that I may have given St. John's too much props following its domination of UCONN in the Big East title game, though I will never put anything past a team coached by Rick Pitino and am still rooting for the Johnnies. I am glad that I didn't advance Kansas past the second round as this team was just too inconsistent all season, which played out quite fittingly during the Jayhawks' loss to St. John's. I am mad that I didn't follow my gut and advance all of the 9 seeds against the 8 seeds in the tournament. It was my bad not to factor in Head Coach Jaime Dixon's tournament experience when predicting that TCU would lose to Ohio State. That was the only 8/9 game where I picked the higher seed. I am glad that I didn't penalize Louisville for being without star freshman Mikel Brown during its first game against South Florida (whose coach Bryan Hodgson has taken the Providence job), moving the Cardinals into the Round of 32 based on the experience of guards Ryan Conwell and Isaac McKneely. I am mad that I ever considered  Louisville getting past a tougher Michigan State team, which didn't play well but did just enough in the second round. I am glad that I didn't hold my dislike for Mick Cronin against his UCLA Bruins in its first-round victory against UCF. I am even more glad that I didn't fall for the trendy pick of UCLA beating UCONN in the second round. It feels like my bad that I don't have UCONN going further as Dan Hurley is one hard coach to eliminate during the NCAA Tournament. I am glad that I don't have the winner of MSU and UCONN advancing out of the Elite Eight, as whatever team wins this Sweet Sixteen contest will have to expend a lot of energy before a quick turnaround, most likely against Duke. I will be very mad if the whistles do not allow St. John's to play its style against Duke, and if the Blue Devils come out of this region as a result of Michigan State or UCONN being too worn down after their Sweet Sixteen battle.  

West Region Original Predictions and Current Reflections 

Predictions for the First Round 

• Arizona beats Long Island. 
• Utah State beats Villanova. 
• Wisconsin beats High Point. 
• Arkansas beats Hawaii. 
• Texas beats BYU. 
• Gonzaga beats Kennesaw State. 
• Miami (FL) beats Missouri. 
• Purdue beats Queens (NC). 

Predictions for the Second Round 

• Arizona beats Utah State. 
• Wisconsin beats Arkansas. 
• Texas beats Gonzaga. 
• Purdue beats Miami (FL). 

Predictions for the Sweet Sixteen 

• Arizona beats Wisconsin (make that Arkansas). 
• Purdue beats Texas. 

Predictions for the Elite Eight

• Arizona beats Purdue (Arizona will win the national championship, defeating Michigan and St. John's). 

I am glad that I have Arizona advancing to the Final Four as the Wildcats feel due and are just too consistent, though it feels like my bad that I have them beating surging Michigan in the Final Four and winning the National Championship. Like St. John's, I worry if Arizona will have enough outside shooting when it truly matters. I am glad that I advanced Utah State past Villanova and wrote about my dislike for Wildcats' Head Coach Kevin Willard, whose sarcastic comment about "firing his assistant coaches" did not go over too well during the first round. I am mad that I didn't give Arkansas enough credit and advance the Razorbacks to the Sweet Sixteen. My reasoning was off as I felt that Arkansas had a surprise Sweet Sixteen run last year (which is really irrelevant) and wouldn't get there again this year. It was my bad to doubt Darius Acuff and John Calipari, whom I am actually glad for. Calipari was never a coach I liked when I was younger, though I appreciate him more and more as I get older. I am glad that Calipari is having such success at Arkansas after Kentucky fans wanted him gone, and that Arkansas is a player under Calipari because college basketball is more fun when the Razorbacks are dangerous. It was my bad to advance Wisconsin to the Sweet Sixteen, though I felt the Badgers were peaking at the right time. In fact, every time I watched Wisconsin this season, the Badgers were notching incredible victories, at Michigan, at Illinois, at Purdue and against Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament. Even the one loss Wisconsin had in the Big Ten Tournament, to Michigan in the semifinal, was a thrilling game. I am mad that I didn't give High Point enough research, props or respect heading into its first-round game. The Panthers were amazing and fun to watch, so it was definitely my bad to write that this region felt the least likely to produce a Cinderella. Even after its valiant loss to Arkansas, High Point is the darling of this year's tournament, and while Wisconsin Badgers' fans are upset about the first-round loss, they shouldn't be too mad. The Panthers shot out of their minds in the last four minutes, taking the game in an improbable fashion rather than Wisconsin choking. I am glad that I felt the First Four winner between Texas and N.C. State would have a legitimate shot at the Sweet Sixteen, though I am mad I picked N.C. State instead of Texas. My bad to the Longhorns, whom I initially wrote would probably not beat BYU in the first round. I am glad that I amended my predictions after the First Four game, advancing the Longhorns past the Cougars and Gonzaga. I am glad that I followed my gut and didn't put Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen as the Bulldogs just didn't feel explosive or big enough to me. I am glad that I didn't advance Missouri past Miami (FL) despite the game being played in St. Louis, Missouri. It was my bad not to question how Missouri got such an advantageous location for its first-round game. I am mad that I didn't get to watch more of Miami (FL) this season, as the Hurricanes under Head Coach Jai Lucas were quite impressive in handling Missouri and its partisan crowd. I am glad that I did not hold my dislike for Purdue basketball against the Boilermakers, who are clearly peaking at the right time.  

Midwest Region Original Predictions and Current Reflections

Predictions for the First Round

• Michigan defeats play-in winner. 
• St. Louis defeats Georgia. 
• Texas Tech defeats Akron. 
• Alabama defeats Hostra. 
• Miami (OH) defeats Tennessee. 
• Virginia defeats Wright State. 
• Santa Clara defeats Kentucky. 
• Iowa State defeats Tennessee State. 

Predictions for the Second Round

• Michigan defeats St. Louis. 
• Alabama defeats Texas Tech. 
• Miami (OH) defeats Virginia. 
• Iowa State defeats Santa Clara. 

Predictions for the Sweet Sixteen

• Michigan defeats Alabama. 
• Iowa State defeats Miami (OH) (make that Tennessee). 

Predictions for the Elite Eight 

• Michigan defeats Iowa State. (*Note: Michigan will lose in the national semifinal to Arizona). 

I am mad that I have Michigan losing in the Final Four, as the Wolverines look like a train at the moment and are the #1 seed playing its best ball through two rounds. I was glad that I advanced St. Louis past Georgia, though I would be remiss to say I expected such a drubbing. It was my bad not to lobby for St. Louis having a higher seed than being in an 8/9 game. That was a really good Billikens team, and I came away thoroughly impressed with Robbie Avila and Head Coach Josh Schertz. I am mad SLU got Michigan in the second round as the Billikens felt like a Sweet Sixteen team to me. I am glad that I didn't fall for Texas Tech and Alabama losing to Akron and Hofstra, respectively, due to injury and legal issues. I am glad that I recognized the coaching abilities of the Red Raiders' Grant McCasland and the Crimson Tide's Nate Oats as being too powerful and advanced each squad along. It was my bad to underestimate the defensive coaching ability of Rick Barnes, whose Tennessee squad absolutely locked up Miami (OH) in the first round. I am mad that I didn't put more thought into this prediction, failing to realize that Tennessee's defense is good for a couple of wins in the tournament. I am glad that Miami (OH) got a win in the First Four, though I am mad that I did not lobby for the Red Hawks getting a more advantageous seed. The Red Hawks put on a shooting clinic against SMU in the First Four, and I really enjoyed this team's connectivity, led by forward Peter Suder, who reminds me of an underrated player from West Virginia back in the day, Joe Herber. I am glad that I didn't advance Virginia into the Sweet Sixteen. While the Cavaliers had a great first season under Ryan Odom and are going to be a dangerous team in the ACC for years to come, it felt like too many pundits were advancing Virginia to the Elite Eight based upon its thrilling loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament Final. I am glad that I advanced Santa Clara past Kentucky, as the Broncos had the game won before Otega Oweh's heroic three sent the game to overtime. I am glad that I talked up Iowa State as a team not to sleep on despite Michigan's presence in the Midwest, though I am mad that the Cyclones will likely be without star Joshua Jefferson. With that said, Iowa State put on a defensive clinic against Kentucky. I am thoroughly impressed with T.J. Otzelberger and am hoping a fully healthy Iowa State can suit up against Michigan in the Elite Eight, as that should be a very fun game. 

South Region Original Predictions and Current Reflections 

Predictions for the First Round

• Florida defeats play-in winner. 
• Iowa defeats Clemson. 
• Vanderbilt beats McNeese. 
• Nebraska beats Troy. 
  
• North Carolina beats VCU. 
• Illinois beats Penn. 
• Texas A & M beats St. Mary's. 
• Houston beats Idaho. 

Predictions for the Second Round 

• Florida beats Iowa. 
• Nebraska beats Vanderbilt. 
• Illinois beats UNC. 
• Houston beats Texas A & M. 

Predictions for the Sweet Sixteen

• Florida beats Nebraska. 
• Houston beats Illinois. 

Predictions for the Elite Eight

• Houston beats Florida. (Houston will lose to St. John's in the Final Four.)

I am glad that I questioned Florida's ability to repeat and didn't advance the Gators out of the South, though I didn't expect Todd Golden's team to be sent packing during the second round. I am glad that I recognized Iowa's methodical offense would be too much for Clemson, though I am mad that I didn't give Ben McCollum's team enough of a chance against Florida. While I figured Iowa would be able to control pace and keep the game close for a half, it was my bad not to recognize just how good of a coach McCollum is. I am glad that I advanced Nebraska to the Sweet Sixteen as the Cornhuskers have impressed me throughout the year. I am mad that I didn't advance Nebraska past Florida in my original predictions as I felt like that was the game where the Gators would have a surprising slip up. I am mad that I didn't watch the thrilling end of the Nebraska-Vanderbilt game live because I was celebrating Illinois' victory against VCU. I am mad that both Nebraska and Vanderbilt are not in the Sweet Sixteen, and it was my bad not to offer more of a critique why these storybook teams were playing each other in the second round. I am mad that I put faith in North Carolina to get past VCU, though the Tar Heels had the game before an epic collapse that has cost Hubert Davis his job. It was my bad to underestimate VCU, which hadn't been to the second round since 2016, though I am glad to have discovered Terrance Hill, Jr. and get to know more about Head Coach Phil Martelli, Jr., whom I was really impressed with as a coach and person. I am glad that I had faith in my Fighting Illini, which have felt like a second-weekend team since the New Year, though now comes the very, very, very hard part in the Sweet Sixteen. I am glad that I didn't fall for St. Mary's and advanced Texas A &M, though it was my bad to think the Aggies would be able to score against Houston and play a tight game. Of all the teams in the field, Houston seems most likely to advance to the Final Four, given the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight being in Houston and Florida having gone out early. I am mad that my Illini have to play Houston in Houston for the Sweet Sixteen, though I will see where the chips fall in this game that feels more worthy of an Elite Eight.