2026 NCAA Tournament Second Round, Game #34 Live Thoughts: #6 Louisville Cardinals vs. 3 Michigan State Spartans

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Final Score: Michigan State 77, Louisville 69. 

Michigan State survives and advances, getting by with a very sloppy/ugly victory. Junior forward Coen Carr was the key to the victory during the last eight minutes, finishing with 21 points and 10 rebounds. Jeremy Fears finished with 12 points and 16 assists. The stats look good, but Fears needs to be more emotionally stable as he had a lot of maddening mistakes. The Spartans survived 14 turnovers and will need to be better to get out of the East (I have them getting to the Elite Eight), with UCLA or UCONN next in the Sweet Sixteen. Michigan State got key bench contributions from Joseph Fort III, who had two big threes in the second half and 12 points off the bench. Louisville could not find any sustained shooting or offensive rhythm due to MSU's defense and the Cardinals' own sloppiness and inefficiencies. Neither team was good, but MSU did enough, hitting some opportune threes (11/26 for 42.3%) to keep the cold Cardinals at bay. Make the jump to see the game's final stats and read my live running reactions. 

Second Half, Final Four Minutes Reactions 

Michigan State leads 75-69 with 11 seconds remaining. The Cardinals take a timeout after a made layup. Carr just missed two free throws, keeping this door open. MSU has been very close to five-second calls inbouding the ball. 

Michigan State leads 74-64 with 43 seconds remaining. The Spartans take a timeout before a ten-second violation in the back court. The Spartans have avoided a few 10-second calls and struggled a bit with the Louisville pressure. It hasn't been pretty getting the ball across the court, but MSU has done so. That kind of describes this game. It. Hasn't. Been. Pretty. 

Michigan State leads 73-62 with exactly 1:00 remaining. Trey Fort III is at the line. and makes the first. Louisville has hit a few threes, but Michigan State gets a lob dunk from Cooper and has been hitting its free throws with the Cardinals in foul trouble. Michigan State takes a timeout.  

Second Half, Under-4 Live Reactions 

Michigan State leads 66-56 with 4:06 remaining. Louisville is challenging an out-of-bounds call against the Cardinals. The ball should be given to Louisville as Fears was out of bounds. Fears just missed the front end of a one-and-one, and tried to make up for it with that hustle play. That has been Fears' day all game. A few good plays here, a few bad plays there, like a teeter totter. Apparently, this will be the under-4 timeout. 

Michigan State leads 66-56 with 4:23 remaining. Louisville takes a timeout after a Wooley three. Coen Carr's energy and activity have swung this game. After Kohler makes two free throws on the flagrant, Carr extends a possession by rebounding his own missed shot, and bouncing the ball of Conwell. Kohler responds with a three, set up by Fears' 13th assist (an MSU record for the NCAA Tournament). Carr later hits a corner three, set up by Fears' now 14th assist. Michigan State has 20 assists, Louisville has 12. Louisville has been down 13 twice, but Conwell and Wooley have hit threes to keep the Cardinals alive. Louisville just hasn't been able to get into an offensive rhythm all day, a credit to MSU's half-court defense and the Cardinals having a poor shooting day.

The foul has been upgraded to a flagrant foul. Big stretch here. MSU will get two shots and the ball. This is a chance to extend this lead. 

Michigan State leads 58-50 with 7:12 remaining. The officials are reviewing whether a Zougris foul is a flagrant. Coen Carr begins the segment with a big and-one, getting bumped on a reverse pivot shot and hitting the free throw. MSU is shooting the bonus. Carr follows up with a big block of Ryan Conwell. Michigan State has five blocks, Louisville has one. 

Second Half, Under-8 Live Reactions 

Michigan State leads 55-50 with 7:59 remaining. This game has been very choppy and ugly for both teams. After getting benched to refocus, Fears scores on a tough banker in the lane. He has 9 points on 3/11 shooting. Louisville gets a Wooley three on a broken play, off a loose ball. The Cardinals are 4/8 from three this half after going 4/18 in the first half. Expect a lot of foul calls and free throws the rest of the way as the fouls are starting to pile up. No player on either team has 4 fouls, but it seems that any possession that doesn't result in a score is resulting in a foul crashing the boards. MSU has four fouls, Louisville has 6 fouls. Both teams have shot six free throws so far in the game. 

Second Half, Under-12 Live Reactions 

Michigan States leads 53-47 with 10:17 remaining. MSU has gotten two big threes from Trey Fort III during this stretch. Louisville had hit three straight threes but have missed its last two, as an open Aly Khalifa three could have tied the game at 50. Michigan State has a 19 to 9 advantage in bench points, with Fort III have 10 points on 3/4 threes. Fears is having a maddeningly frustrating game. He has 11 assists total (two in this stretch) and a big jumper at the elbow. However, he has forced a couple of shots and gave up the ball trying to foul bait, which is his game. He needs to be much smarter out there and is taking the bait playing this type of game against Louisville, which just doesn't seem like it is going to bust the door down here. 

Second Half, Under-16 Live Reactions 

Michigan State leads 42-37 with 15:52 remaining. I missed the first three minutes of the second half as I had to walk the dog at halftime. From what I have seen, Michigan State is continuing to turn the ball over. Two turnovers in two possessions. That's 12 for the game, above the team's average of 11 per game. Louisville just isn't capitalizing, with a bad turnover by the Cardinals as well. The Cardinals have had a chance in may of these four-minute segments to get closer, but haven't been disciplined enough. When Michigan State hasn't turned the ball over, the Spartans have 14 assists to Louisville's 7. Michigan State has already been called for 3 fouls, Louisville 1. It seems like both teams are playing with fire. MSU letting Louisville hang in, Louisville not cutting into the MSU lead. 

Halftime Score: Michigan State 36, Louisville 31.  

Louisville is lucky to be down only five as the Cardinals are struggling shooting. Michigan State is lucky to be up five as the Spartans have 9 turnovers. Sparty has been able to maintain the lead with some opportune threes and are shooting a surprising 50% (7-14) from three. The Spartans needs to take care of the ball and run better half court sets. Louisville's scrambling defense has seemed to make MSU a bit uncomfortable in the half court. It is doubtful Louisville is going to change much. The Cardinals will shoot threes, but should try to isolate Wooley a bit more on the wing and get Zougris a few more touches in the paint. This was a sloppy first half for both teams, more uncharacteristic of MSU, which wants to run and play fast but let that affect some decision-making. Below are the halftime stats. 

First Half, Final Four Minutes Live Reactions 

Michigan State leads 36-31 with 16 seconds remaining. MSU calls a timeout. Conwell just split a pair of free throws. Michigan State gets a good look, a three for Teng, who misses at the horn. 

Michigan State leads 36-30 with 43 seconds remaining. Louisville calls a timeout. Wooley has gotten going with a three and two layups. MSU finally runs some disciplined offense, with Fears hitting Carr for a baseline lob dunk. Fears then hits a three but turns the ball over on a hit ahead. Michigan State dodges a bullet as Conwell misses an open corner three. MSU follows up with a shot-clock violation. Michigan State has an uncharacteristic 8 turnovers, which have led to 8 Louisville points. Th Cardinals are now 4/18 from three. 

First Half, Under-4 Live Reactions 

Michigan State leads 30-23 with 3:46 remaining. MSU just got a big three from Trey Fort, who was fouled and will be shooting a free throw out of the break. MSU hasn't been playing as sharp as usual. Fears was pulled for a bit after two uncharacteristic possessions, taking a rushed shot that leads to a Louisville fast break and Conwell layup. He then makes a lazy pass that is stolen. MSU later turns it over as Cooper is not fast enough with the ball out of the double, leading to another layup, this time by Adrian Wooley. Louisville seems to be coming but makes careless mistakes like fouling Fort III. Both teams are dodging bullets. Kohler missed a wide open three in the secondary break, Conwell missed a layup after throwing the ball of the back of Carr, who feel asleep on the inbound. Which team can sharpen up here the last four minutes is going to be key? It feels like both teams need the half. 

First Half, Under-8 Live Reactions 

Michigan State leads 27-19 with 7:06 remaining. This has been a sloppy stretch for both teams. Michigan State has 5 turnovers, Louisville 3. Louisville continues to jack up threes and miss. Michigan State has more found money with a Carson Cooper three. Conwell is back on the floor and immediately hits a three. Louisville has gotten two easy baskets at the rim, finally making a conscious decision to get the ball inside. Michigan State has been playing a bit too fast and loose in the half court. Michigan State has two big threes off the bench from Kur Tang. His last three was much needed for the Spartans, who are 5/8 from deep, 62.5%. Louisville is just 3/14, 21.4%. Michigan State does have 9 assists, with Fears accounting for 4 of them. Louisville's Zougris is off to a nice start, 3-for-3 from the field for 6 points. The Cardinals should try to get him a few more touches in the post. 

First Half, Under-12 Live Reactions 

Michigan State leads 19-12. Jaxon Kohler has a quick five points. Here's a problem already for Louisville. The Cardinals are letting Michigan State push the ball up court very quickly. Under Tom Izzo, MSU has always been one of the best teams in the country getting out in transition. Jeremy Fears is doing a great job hitting players ahead and behind the defense, including two passes to freshman Cam Ward. Another problem: MSU is 3/4 from three. Louisville is 2/10. Not a good sign. Michigan State is dictating pace and hitting shots. Louisville had open threes early, the quality of the Cardinals' last couple of attempts have been more contest. MSU is definitely picking up the defensive intensity. 

First Half, Under-16 Live Reactions 

The game is tied at 7. Both teams are feeling each other out. Louisville's Ryan Conwell just splashed a three, but has picked up its second foul (2 offensive). Michigan State has some found money as Coen Carr hits a three. Carr is off to a nice start with five points and is being aggressive attacking from the three-point line. Both teams have offensive put-backs (Carson Cooper for State, Evangelos Zougris for Louisville). Louisville has had open threes, but is just 1/4 from deep. 

Prediction: Michigan State 

Expect a close, chippy game between Louisville and Michigan State, with both schools coming off impressive first-round victories. Without star freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr., Louisville blitzed South Florida during the first half of its victory against South Florida on Thursday. The Cardinals were not as impressive in the second half, letting South Florida back into the game. Louisville has experienced guards in Ryan Conwell (formerly of Xavier) and Isaac McNeeley (formerly of Virginia) who can shoot the three ball. Michigan State did not mess around with North Dakota State on Thursday. The Spartans are led by lightning-rod point guard Jeremy Fears, who is great at getting into the paint and running the show. Head Coach Tom Izzo has gotten a lot out of this team, which is not that athletic or great at shooting. The Spartans are incredibly tough and have been very consistent this season, with big men Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper playing really well. Izzo has had many great NCAA Tournament battles against Louisville in the past when Rick Pitino was the Cardinals coach. Louisville Head Coach Pat Kelsey will have his Cardinals ready for this next round against the Spartans, which will ultimately prevail in a game that will likely come down to a few possessions in the last minute.