Is last year's national-championship game about to happen again in the Elite Eight of the South Region? Last year Florida won its third national championship during a close title game against Houston, and both teams seem headed on a collision course with a back-t0-back trip to the Final Four on the line. Make the jump to read my 10 observations and final predictions for the South Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
1. A Florida repeat trip to the Final Four will not happen. Ultimately, the Gators' guard play is nowhere near as dangerous as last year. Still, Florida is easily coming out of the opening weekend and will likely be in the Elite Eight. Watch out for a Sweet Sixteen rematch of last week's SEC semifinal between Florida and #5 Vanderbilt. The Commodores upset Florida by double-digits that game. Even a Sweet Sixteen game against Nebraska could be very tough given the Cornhuskers' three-point shooting. I expect Florida to get to the Elite 8, where it will lose to the team it defeated last year in the title game.
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2. Houston isn't as gritty as last year, but will have a home-court advantage in the Regional Semifinals and Finals. The Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight will be played at the Toyota Center in Houston, which will be a huge advantage for the Cougars if Kelvin Sampson's team can survive the opening weekend.
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3. Can #3 Illinois finish close games, or will the Illini bow out in disappointment? The Illini seemed to be a sneaky Final Four candidate a few weeks ago and haven't lost to a team outside of the NCAA Tournament all season, thanks to incredible freshmen seasons from Keaton Wagler and David Mirkovic. Yet the Illini have gone 0-4 in overtime games, several of which they blew double-digit leads! If the Illini get hot from three, they can get to the Final Four. However, if they continue to struggle from deep, as has been the case recently, Illinois could be done by the end of this first weekend.
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4. Sign me up for a second-round rematch of the 2005 national championship game between North Carolina and Illinois. The Tar Heels won that game 21 years ago, ending Illinois' dream season. While North Carolina will be without star freshman Caleb Wilson for the tournament, the Tar Heels will be playing in Greenville, South Carolina, and a Seth Trimble is the type of player who has given Illinois problems in the past. It is a shame Wilson is out as a game against Wagler would showcase two top NBA prospects.
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5. North Carolina's first-round game against VCU is a must see. Despite being in South Carolina, UNC is a popular team to get upset, due to Wilson's injury and VCU having won 17 of its last 18 games. This is one of the most-exciting games of the first round in my opinion. I still think UNC wins as Hubert Davis teams seem more dangerous when overlooked and having no expectations than when having the spotlight on them.
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6. #4 Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game, but so what? This Nebraska team runs great offense under Head Coach Fred Hoiberg. Like Illinois, Nebraska hasn't had a bad loss. A second-round game against Vandy will be tough, but Nebraska can get to a Sweet Sixteen and challenge a Florida if its offense is clicking. Rest assured, #4 Nebraska will beat #13 Troy and earn at least one NCAA Tournament win. Arguably, Nebraska could have been a three-seed.
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7. Nebraska versus Vanderbilt is a tantalizing second-round game. Vanderbilt Head Coach Mark Byington has taken the Commodores to the NCAA Tournament in each of his first two seasons after doing so the previous season at James Madison. The Commodores beat Florida in the SEC semifinals and lost a tough game to a surging Arkansas in the SEC title game. It's a shame #5 Vandy and #4 Nebraska were seeded in the same region as both teams have had seasons worthy of a Sweet Sixteen. Vandy, of course, has to get past a #12 McNeese team that upset Clemson last year as a #12 seed. That McNeese team was coached by Will Wade, who moved onto N.C. State and lost to Texas during the First Four on Tuesday night. Vandy will defeat McNeese. As for the Cornhuskers, that game is very hard to call.
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8. Iowa will defeat Clemson in the 8/9 game. Iowa is in the tournament under its first-year Head Coach Ben McCollum, who brought his superstar point guard Bennett Stirtz with him from Drake. When in doubt, go with that combination to get by Clemson.
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9. Don't forget Iowa's old Head Coach. The Hawkeyes moved on from its all-time winningest coach Fran McCaffery after last season. McCaffery landed at his alma mater Penn, which upset Yale in the Ivy League championship game on Sunday, thanks to 44 points from former Duke and Virginia player T.J. Power. Of course, McCaffery will be going against a familiar foe in Brad Underwood and the Illinois Fighting Illini. Penn will be without leading scorer Ethan Roberts due to concussion issues, and Power is apparently under the weather. Still, Penn should be quite proud of getting to the tournament. It is doubtful the Quakers will have the firepower to match Illinois' offense, though it doesn't hurt to have a head coach who is familiar with the Illini.
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10. In the 7/10 game, my heart says Texas A & M, my head says St. Mary's. I am not a huge fan of St. Mary's program, though the Gaels seem to always get a first-round win. I am hoping Texas A & M's up-tempo style known as Bucky Ball under first-year head coach Bucky McMillan will rule out, but I am skeptical. With that said, Houston awaits the winner so neither team is likely getting out of the second round. All year long, I felt like neither Houston or Florida would get back to the Final Four. Yet a rematch seems destined in the Elite Eight, with Houston getting revenge for its title-game loss to the Gators, thanks in large part to the friendly home crowd.
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Predictions for the First Round
- Florida defeats play-in winner.
- Iowa defeats Clemson.
- Vanderbilt beats McNeese.
- Nebraska beats Troy.
- North Carolina beats VCU.
- Illinois beats Penn.
- Texas A & M beats St. Mary's.
- Houston beats Idaho.
Predictions for the Second Round
- Florida beats Iowa.
- Nebraska beats Vanderbilt.
- Illinois beats UNC.
- Houston beats Texas A & M.
Predictions for the Sweet Sixteen
- Florida beats Nebraska.
- Houston beats Illinois.
Predictions for the Elite Eight
- Houston beats Florida. (Houston will lose to St. John's in the Final Four.)
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