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Pundits are comparing tonight's fourth and final Sweet Sixteen game between the #3 Illinois Fighting Illini and #2 Houston Cougars to more of an Elite Eight game. Do the Illini have what it takes to upset the Cougars? Or is Houston destined to winning and securing another Final Four appearance, with tonight's game being played at the Toyota Center in Houston? Make the jump to read some connections, memories, and a final prediction for Illinois versus Houston.
Game #52: (3) Illinois vs. (2) Houston, 9:05 p.m. (CT) on TBS
How They Got Here to the Sweet Sixteen
Illinois handled its business during its opening weekend games by defeating #11 Penn by 35 points and controlling #11 VCU during a 21-point victory. Houston looked like Houston in the first two rounds, dominant! The Cougars defeated #15 Idaho and #10 Texas A & M both by 31 points! If Houston beats Illinois by such a margin, it's safe to say I won't be getting out of bed for weeks! Just kidding, I think.
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Illinois' Ideal Path to the Final Four
- Upset Houston.
- Avoid the methodical style of Iowa.
- Win a shootout against Nebraska.
Houston's Ideal Path to the Final Four
- Outphysical Illinois.
- Avoid the three-point shooting of Nebraska.
- Grind out Iowa in the half court.
NCAA Tournament Memories of Illinois versus Houston
Illinois and Houston have only played once during the NCAA Tournament, though the game was quite recent. During the second round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, #5 Houston "upset" #4 Illinois, though the Cougars were terribly underseeded. I believe they were the #5 team in the nation on Kenpom heading into the tournament. Anyways, Illinois was lucky to be playing Houston after somehow stealing a first-round victory against Chattanooga. The Illini slept walk that entire game, looking like a team that had a hangover from its shocking second-round loss to Loyola-Chicago the prior year in the tournament. Houston jumped the Illini early before Illinois seemed to rally. Freshman Luke Goode hit several threes in the first half while senior Trent Frazier hit a running three at the halftime horn. The Illini hung in during the second half before the game turned on a controversial technical foul called against Illinois freshman R.J. Melenez, who received the infraction for "hanging" on the rim after a dunk on the fast break. Ultimately, though, Houston was the better/more physical team, with Jamal Shead killing the Illini in the mid-range, Kyler Edwards hitting some big threes, and Taze Moore dominating down low en route to a 68-53 victory. Houston would then proceed to beat #1 Arizona in the Sweet Sixteen before losing to #2 Villanova in the Elite Eight.
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Sweet Sixteen Histories of Illinois and Houston
Illinois is making its second Sweet Sixteen appearance in the past three seasons under Head Coach Brad Underwood. Two years ago, Illinois had a similar path as a #3 seed, beating #14 Morehead State before avoiding the #6 (that year it was BYU, this year it was North Carolina) and knocking out the A-10 champion, #11 Duquense (VCU was this year's A-10 champ). Illinois was in a similar spot two years ago in the Sweet Sixteen, facing a #2 from the Big 12, Iowa State. The Illini got off to a quick start that game and held on for a tight victory before getting its doors blown off by defending and eventual repeat champion UCONN.
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Prior to its Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2023, Illinois had not been to the Sweet Sixteen since its magical 2005 season. As the #1 overall seed in the 2005 NCAA Tournament, Illinois took care of UW-Milwaukee in the Sweet Sixteen before rallying to beat Arizona during an overtime classic. At the 2005 Final Four, Illinois defeated Louisville before losing to North Carolina in the National Championship Game. From 2001-2005 (when I was an undergrad at the university), Illinois reached four Sweet 16s, going 2-2.
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Under Kelvin Sampson, Houston has appeared in seven straight Sweet Sixteens (the 2020 NCAA Tournament was cancelled). Honestly, Houston should have been in eight straight Sweet Sixteens had it not been for a heartbreaking loss to Michigan in the second round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament. Houston has advanced to three Elite Eights and two Final Fours in this recent span of dominance, including last year's run to the national title game. Houston survived another Big Ten opponent, Purdue, during a thrilling ending of last year's Sweet Sixteen game before dominating Tennessee in the Elite Eight and shocking Duke in the Final Four. Sadly, Houston couldn't get off a final shot during its championship game loss to Florida, ending an exciting title game on an anticlimactic note.
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Prior to Kelvin Sampson first bringing the Cougars to the Sweet Sixteen during the 2019 NCAA Tournament, Houston had not been this far since its dominant stretch from 1982-1984, when the Cougars made three straight Final Fours and two national championship games. Amazingly, those Houston teams led by Head Coach Guy Lewis, Clyde Drexler, Akeem Olajuwon and a slew of other greats never won a National Championship, with a shocking loss to North Carolina State in 1983 and a defeat to Patrick Ewing and Georgetown in 1984.
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Memorable Illini Sweet Sixteen Game - Illinois Downs Kansas
During the 2001 NCAA Tournament, Illinois was the fourth #1 seed and preparing to face #4 Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen in San Antonio, Texas. I was a freshman at the U-of-I at the time and watched the game with a high school friend of mine at Murphys, my favorite bar on Green Street. I vividly remember downing Long Island Ice Teas as the Illini's Frankie Williams dominated the Jayhawks. What a great night that was! Of course, Kansas would get revenge against the Illini the following season, in a Sweet Sixteen game at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wisconsin. Another Sweet Sixteen game that stands out is Illinois' loss to Duke in 2004. Entering that game, I had similar feelings as to how I feel about tonight's Illinois-Houston game. I know the Illini can hang with and beat Houston, as I felt was the case with Duke, though I know it will be a very tall task.
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Memorable Houston Sweet Sixteen Game - Cougars Down Cats
After taking care of Illinois in the second round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, the #5 Cougars showed its mettle with a Sweet-Sixteen victory against #1 Arizona. This "upset" of Tommy Lloyd's first Arizona team made me feel less angry about the Illini's loss the prior weekend. Personally, I enjoy watching Houston's Sweet Sixteen wins against Memphis State in back-to-back tournaments, 1983 and 1984. While I did not watch those games live, I feel like I have seen them multiple times on the old Classic Sports and ESPN Classic networks. There is something about early 1980s college basketball that captures my attention.
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Final Prediction: Houston
Illinois has exceeded my expectations all season long. When Underwood constructed this tall yet slow roster, I worried about athleticism down low, thinking of what I had just seen from Houston's run to the title game last year. Ultimately, I think Houston's athleticism up front (forward Joseph Tugler especially stands out) will be a huge difference, though Illinois can spread the floor. Like its game against Iowa State two years ago, Illinois must be strong with the ball against Houston's blitzing, trapping, and aggressive double teams on defense. Illinois survived against the Cyclones in large part due to Marcus Domask being strong with the ball when facing double teams. Illinois must get a similar performance from once-in-a-generation freshman Keaton Wagler. Both teams are playing excellent basketball, with Illinois ratcheting up its defense in the second round. Of course, Houston is a different beast, even if this isn't the Cougars' best defensive team. As much as my heart says Illinois, my head says Houston will win due to being a little more athletic, explosive (see freshman Kingston Flemings) and experienced (see seniors Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp). This game is also being played in Houston, meaning it is a road game for the Illini, making the task even more difficult. If there ever was an Illinois team that can beat Houston, it is this year's team. However, at the end of the day, Houston should be able to thrive in the mid-range and outlast the Illini during what will be an anxiety-ridden game for me.
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