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And then there were four! The Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Tournament is set, with #3 Illinois and #2 UCONN set to rematch a Black Friday game from earlier this season and #1 Michigan and #1 Arizona squaring off in what some pundits are saying is the "De Facto National Championship Game," though I wouldn't go that far with a Dan Hurley team still standing and an Illinois team believing it can win it all. While Illinois is the lowest seed remaining, UCONN is the most surprising team to reach Indianapolis, considering that the Huskies were down 19 points in the second half yesterday and needed an all-time blunder by Duke (HOLD THE BALL AND TAKE A FOUL!) to get off Braylon Mullins' miracle three. Ultimately, UCONN's improbable, gutty comeback makes this Final Four field feel much more balanced and difficult to predict, and sets up what should be two outstanding national semifinals on Saturday. Make the jump to see the tip times and read some initial observations about this year's Final Four.
2026 NCAA Tournament Final Four - Saturday Tip Times
- National Semifinal #1/Game #61: #3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. #2 UCONN Huskies, 5:09 p.m. CT (TBS)
- National Semifinal #2/Game #62: #1 Michigan Wolverines vs. #1 Arizona Wildcats, 7:49 p.m. CT (TBS)
Initial Thoughts of Illinois versus UCONN
As an Illinois fan, I am ecstatic the Illini are playing UCONN, which is absolutely crazy to say on the surface. Don't get me wrong. There is no tougher Head Coach in the NCAA Tournament than the Huskies' Dan Hurley and no more difficult team to beat than UCONN. See the second half of yesterday's victory against Duke, which was a UCONN masterclass in an offense getting whatever it wanted and a testament to a program's culture and unwillingness to die. UCONN is making its third Final Four in the last four years and has been the best program in college basketball since right before the turn of the century.
With that said, this tournament has felt like the Carlos Boozer Family Invitational, with Duke destined to get to the Final Four and title game despite playing a lot of uneven basketball. While Illinois would definitely compete with Duke, the Illini would have struggled with Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans. I was also not looking to the physicality that Duke would be afforded to play against Illinois star freshman guard Keaton Wagler. After making just three threes against Iowa, I figured Illinois would struggle from deep against the length of Duke's Evans and Dame Sarr. Also, I have seen enough Illinois-Duke games to know how the fouls would go. It's been 21 years since Illinois was in the Final Four, and I was not looking forward to Cayden and Cameron Boozer getting some questionable foul calls at the rim. Call me petty, but it's the truth. By no means should Illinois have been scared to play Duke, though the thought of playing Duke and what that represents would have been a formidable task. For God's sake, look at what it took for UCONN to beat the Blue Devils yesterday!
Ultimately, I feel Illinois-UCONN is a much more even game. Two seasons ago, an all-time UCONN squad embarrassed Illinois during an Elite Eight blowout that included an unprecedented 30-0 run. That Elite Eight game showed how far Illinois was from winning a national title and resulted in Head Coach Brad Underwood putting a greater emphasis on positional size. Illinois is now the tallest team in the country and much better equipped to compete against UCONN, though the Huskies beat the Illini during a Black Friday game earlier this season. Ultimately, I would not take too much out of that game as both teams were figuring things out, which I will get into later this week. UCONN controlled that late November game, though Illinois started to find some success in the last eight minutes or so. With all that said, this UCONN team is not as dominant as the Huskies teams that won back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024. For Hurley to get this team to another Final Four, considering UCONN's shooting woes from deep and stumbles heading into the tournament, is a reflection of just how amazing of a coach he is. For all his antics on the sidelines, Hurley has made it clear, to win a national championship nowadays, you must go through UCONN in the process. See last year's national champion Florida, which eked out a second-round victory against the Huskies.
Ultimately, this game feels like a toss up. For some reason, Illinois is a slight favorite after Connecticut's victory against Duke. I am not sure how that this is the case, given UCONN's higher seed and championship pedigree. Perhaps oddsmakers are looking at Illinois' margin of victory so far in the tournament and the analytics, which should be thrown out the window when going against a Hurley team. UCONN should be considered favorites in my opinion, though this game could go either way. Expect this game to be very similar to UCONN's Sweet Sixteen game against Michigan State, a half-court affair that came down to the wire. At the moment, I would slightly lean toward UCONN as the Huskies have a lot of different athletes to throw at Wagler, though I am very confident that if Illinois continues to play defense the way it has, the Illini can beat the Huskies. Below are highlights of Illinois and UCONN's regional victories to reach the Final Four, and previous games between the two programs this year and during the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
With that said, this tournament has felt like the Carlos Boozer Family Invitational, with Duke destined to get to the Final Four and title game despite playing a lot of uneven basketball. While Illinois would definitely compete with Duke, the Illini would have struggled with Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans. I was also not looking to the physicality that Duke would be afforded to play against Illinois star freshman guard Keaton Wagler. After making just three threes against Iowa, I figured Illinois would struggle from deep against the length of Duke's Evans and Dame Sarr. Also, I have seen enough Illinois-Duke games to know how the fouls would go. It's been 21 years since Illinois was in the Final Four, and I was not looking forward to Cayden and Cameron Boozer getting some questionable foul calls at the rim. Call me petty, but it's the truth. By no means should Illinois have been scared to play Duke, though the thought of playing Duke and what that represents would have been a formidable task. For God's sake, look at what it took for UCONN to beat the Blue Devils yesterday!
Ultimately, I feel Illinois-UCONN is a much more even game. Two seasons ago, an all-time UCONN squad embarrassed Illinois during an Elite Eight blowout that included an unprecedented 30-0 run. That Elite Eight game showed how far Illinois was from winning a national title and resulted in Head Coach Brad Underwood putting a greater emphasis on positional size. Illinois is now the tallest team in the country and much better equipped to compete against UCONN, though the Huskies beat the Illini during a Black Friday game earlier this season. Ultimately, I would not take too much out of that game as both teams were figuring things out, which I will get into later this week. UCONN controlled that late November game, though Illinois started to find some success in the last eight minutes or so. With all that said, this UCONN team is not as dominant as the Huskies teams that won back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024. For Hurley to get this team to another Final Four, considering UCONN's shooting woes from deep and stumbles heading into the tournament, is a reflection of just how amazing of a coach he is. For all his antics on the sidelines, Hurley has made it clear, to win a national championship nowadays, you must go through UCONN in the process. See last year's national champion Florida, which eked out a second-round victory against the Huskies.
Ultimately, this game feels like a toss up. For some reason, Illinois is a slight favorite after Connecticut's victory against Duke. I am not sure how that this is the case, given UCONN's higher seed and championship pedigree. Perhaps oddsmakers are looking at Illinois' margin of victory so far in the tournament and the analytics, which should be thrown out the window when going against a Hurley team. UCONN should be considered favorites in my opinion, though this game could go either way. Expect this game to be very similar to UCONN's Sweet Sixteen game against Michigan State, a half-court affair that came down to the wire. At the moment, I would slightly lean toward UCONN as the Huskies have a lot of different athletes to throw at Wagler, though I am very confident that if Illinois continues to play defense the way it has, the Illini can beat the Huskies. Below are highlights of Illinois and UCONN's regional victories to reach the Final Four, and previous games between the two programs this year and during the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
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Initial Thoughts of Michigan versus Arizona
This could go down as an all-time Final Four game, with the feel of a heavyweight fight. I am more familiar with Michigan than I am Arizona, and I will need to rewatch Arizona's games during the tournament this week. Unfortunately, for the Wildcats, it's been bad timing for me as a viewer, with the Wildcats' Sweet Sixteen game against Arkansas occurring while Illinois was playing Houston and the Elite Eight victory against Purdue following the Illini's defeat of Iowa, when I was trying to process that Illinois was back in the Final Four for the first time since 2005 (and admittedly feeling myself with a celebratory six pack).
Michigan has been the scariest team in the country all season, with the ultimate luxury of playing Yaxel Lendeborg at small forward given the girth of power forward Morez Johnson, Jr. and height of skilled big Aday Mara. The Wolverines have not really been tested this tournament, which is a testament to how Michigan can overwhelm its opponents. The Wolverines are locked in defensively, and when Michigan is able to convert defense stops into transition dunks or threes, this team is too explosive and pretty much unbeatable. During the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight, Lendeborg has made the conscious decision to look for his offense, which is bad news for Arizona, UCONN and Illinois. Lendeborg looks like a man among boys at times on the court and has been the most dominant player this tournament. With that said, Michigan needs to get Johnson, Jr. and Mara more involved, as both players were relatively quiet this past weekend. Johnson really struggled finishing at the basket and seemed to be pressing. Mara has been fine, though Michigan needs to make post touches to him more of a priority. The good news for Michigan is that Trey McKenney and Roddy Gayle, Jr. are really stepping up off the bench while point guard Eliot Cadeau continues to be a thorn in opponents' sides with his ability to hit needed threes and get to the rim. Michigan's guard play has been excellent, even without injured reserve L.J. Cason, with Nimari Burnett just a solid player on both ends.
While Michigan looks like a train, I was not impressed with the Wolverines' emotional maturity at times this past weekend. In the second half of the Elite Eight, Johnson needlessly got involved with several Tennessee players on a tie up, which could have led to a physical altercation and had bigger implications for the Final Four. Lendeborg as well needs to find the better balance between playing with an edge and looking down/bullying his competition as I doubt Arizona is going to be intimidated. Michigan can get away with such behavior during blowout leads, but I wouldn't want to spark a team like Arizona, especially during a tight game, with such antics. It will be interesting to see how Michigan responds when tested late, as this Final Four game feels like it will go down to the last possession. Right now, Arizona Head Coach Tommy Lloyd seems to have a better feel for his team. Watching Michigan Head Coach Dusty May during the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight, it was apparent he was frustrated with his team losing focus and playing down to its opponent in spurts. May will certainly be harping on his players to play with the right type of edge this weekend.
As for the Wildcats, Arizona has been the most impressive #1 seed in the tournament in my opinion. When the Wildcats have been tested against Utah State and Purdue, Arizona has remained composed and not really blinked. In the second half of the Elite Eight victory against a veteran Purdue team, the Wildcats immediately came out and dominated, leaving no doubt who was the better team. Arizona has it all in terms of size, talent, physical toughness, and emotional steadiness. Jayden Bradley is an ultimate leader while freshman Koa Peat and Brayden Burries play like upperclassmen. Two players who have impressed me are international in flavor, center Motiejus Krivas and freshman small forward Ivan Kharchenkov, both of whom bring a lot of physicality and don't back down. Off the bench, Arizona is sparked by gamer Anthony Dell'Orso and the ultra-physical Tobe Awaka. Lloyd's team is playing with a professional mindset, and Michigan is going to have to be really focused to get past the Wildcats.
Right now, Michigan is a slight favorite (1.5 points), which I agree with. I would slightly lean toward Michigan winning this game, though I feel Arizona will pull it out if the game is close in the final minutes. For Michigan, it's time to cut out the silly antics and come out and dominate early as Arizona has been playing the best ball of anyone the past month and will be the Wolverines' most formidable test of the season. Whichever team emerges from this game will clearly be favored in the national championship game. Below are highlights of both Arizona's and Michigan's victories this past weekend en route to this Final Four prize fight.
Michigan has been the scariest team in the country all season, with the ultimate luxury of playing Yaxel Lendeborg at small forward given the girth of power forward Morez Johnson, Jr. and height of skilled big Aday Mara. The Wolverines have not really been tested this tournament, which is a testament to how Michigan can overwhelm its opponents. The Wolverines are locked in defensively, and when Michigan is able to convert defense stops into transition dunks or threes, this team is too explosive and pretty much unbeatable. During the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight, Lendeborg has made the conscious decision to look for his offense, which is bad news for Arizona, UCONN and Illinois. Lendeborg looks like a man among boys at times on the court and has been the most dominant player this tournament. With that said, Michigan needs to get Johnson, Jr. and Mara more involved, as both players were relatively quiet this past weekend. Johnson really struggled finishing at the basket and seemed to be pressing. Mara has been fine, though Michigan needs to make post touches to him more of a priority. The good news for Michigan is that Trey McKenney and Roddy Gayle, Jr. are really stepping up off the bench while point guard Eliot Cadeau continues to be a thorn in opponents' sides with his ability to hit needed threes and get to the rim. Michigan's guard play has been excellent, even without injured reserve L.J. Cason, with Nimari Burnett just a solid player on both ends.
While Michigan looks like a train, I was not impressed with the Wolverines' emotional maturity at times this past weekend. In the second half of the Elite Eight, Johnson needlessly got involved with several Tennessee players on a tie up, which could have led to a physical altercation and had bigger implications for the Final Four. Lendeborg as well needs to find the better balance between playing with an edge and looking down/bullying his competition as I doubt Arizona is going to be intimidated. Michigan can get away with such behavior during blowout leads, but I wouldn't want to spark a team like Arizona, especially during a tight game, with such antics. It will be interesting to see how Michigan responds when tested late, as this Final Four game feels like it will go down to the last possession. Right now, Arizona Head Coach Tommy Lloyd seems to have a better feel for his team. Watching Michigan Head Coach Dusty May during the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight, it was apparent he was frustrated with his team losing focus and playing down to its opponent in spurts. May will certainly be harping on his players to play with the right type of edge this weekend.
As for the Wildcats, Arizona has been the most impressive #1 seed in the tournament in my opinion. When the Wildcats have been tested against Utah State and Purdue, Arizona has remained composed and not really blinked. In the second half of the Elite Eight victory against a veteran Purdue team, the Wildcats immediately came out and dominated, leaving no doubt who was the better team. Arizona has it all in terms of size, talent, physical toughness, and emotional steadiness. Jayden Bradley is an ultimate leader while freshman Koa Peat and Brayden Burries play like upperclassmen. Two players who have impressed me are international in flavor, center Motiejus Krivas and freshman small forward Ivan Kharchenkov, both of whom bring a lot of physicality and don't back down. Off the bench, Arizona is sparked by gamer Anthony Dell'Orso and the ultra-physical Tobe Awaka. Lloyd's team is playing with a professional mindset, and Michigan is going to have to be really focused to get past the Wildcats.
Right now, Michigan is a slight favorite (1.5 points), which I agree with. I would slightly lean toward Michigan winning this game, though I feel Arizona will pull it out if the game is close in the final minutes. For Michigan, it's time to cut out the silly antics and come out and dominate early as Arizona has been playing the best ball of anyone the past month and will be the Wolverines' most formidable test of the season. Whichever team emerges from this game will clearly be favored in the national championship game. Below are highlights of both Arizona's and Michigan's victories this past weekend en route to this Final Four prize fight.
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