The #1 seed (and #2 overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament) Arizona Wildcats look to have a quite advantageous path to the Final Four based on an early look at the West Region, though there are a few obstacles in the way. Make the jump to read my 10 observations and final predictions for the West Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
1. Arizona Seems Headed to Its First Final Four in 25 (!) Years. First, how is it possible that Arizona hasn't been to the Final Four since 2001 after appearances in 1997, 1994 and 1988? Whatever the case, Arizona seems primed to get to Indianapolis as the #1 seed in the West Region, which is the second weakest bracket in my opinion. Head Coach Tommy Lloyd has earned his second #1 seed in five seasons at Arizona, with this year's squad a mixture of youth and experience, and of course, international flavor. While freshmen Koa Peat, Braden Burries and Ivan Kharchenkov are key players on Arizona, senior point guard and Alabama transfer Jayden Bradley is the straw that stirs the drink. Senior guard Anthony Dell'Orso and forward Tobe Awaka provide steadying experience along with junior big man Montiejus Krivas. Lloyd has lost three of his four NCAA Tournament appearances in the Sweet Sixteen, which will be a test once again this year, likely in the form of #4 Arkansas and #5 Wisconsin. And #2 Purdue was the preseason number-one team for a reason, with the Boilermakers figuring it out during the Big Ten Tournament. Still, Arizona has been rock steady all year, as two victories against the Houston Cougars demonstrate, and will emerge from the West.
| | | |
2. Which Purdue Team Shows Up? Expect The Good Boilermakers, Thanks to a Generous Seed and Underwhelming Bracket. After a disappointing Big Ten regular season, including finishing 7-7 in its last 14 games, Purdue rediscovered itself during the Big Ten Tournament, earning four victories as a #7 seed, including a Big Ten title game victory against a vaunted Michigan squad. Honestly, Purdue was very fortunate to get as high as a #2 seed, given the preseason hype yet relatively disappointing season, and were probably more deserving of no better than a #3 seed. The Boilermakers are led by point guard Braden Smith, who is two assists shy from breaking Bobby Hurley's all-time assists record in Division I basketball. Senior power forward Trey Kaufman-Renn is tough to handle on the block, with nifty footwork, crafty fakes and a soft touch. Kaufman-Reen seems engaged at the right time of the season. While a lumberjack out on the floor, 6-11 South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff also found some success during the Big Ten Tournament, though the Boilers are more explosive in my opinion when moving Kaufman-Renn to the five and spreading the floor. Cluff is a typical Purdue big, a football player on the court who is very physical and annoying to watch, as Purdue Head Coach Matt Painter is seemingly contractually obligated to have at least once of these guys on his roster at all times. Senior Fletcher Loyer is still limited athletically but is an experienced three-points marksmen who will mix it up when necessary. Ultimately, Purdue's experience is what make the Boilermakers dangerous as three of the team's five starters were in the National Championship game two years ago (a loss against UCONN). What's forgotten is that Purdue almost knocked out last year's runner-up Houston during a thrilling Sweet Sixteen finish in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. While Purdue has momentum, the Boilers could struggle in the second round with #7 Miami (FL) as athletic and quick teams historically give Purdue trouble. If Purdue gets out of the opening weekend, expect the Boilermakers to meet Arizona in the Elite Eight.
| | |
3. Something I Really Like: A Potential Second Round Game between Arkansas and Wisconsin. In any other year, Arkansas and Wisconsin would be prime 4- and 5-seeds to get to the Final Four. However, with Arizona lurking in the Sweet Sixteen, whoever emerges from this likely second-round matchup will have a tall task. Razorbacks Head Coach John Calipari is seeking his second Sweet Sixteen in two years at Arkansas and has a freshman guard in Darius Acuff who takes some bad shots but carries hismelf as all-business. Two players to watch on Arkansas are sophomore forward Billy Richmond III and senior big man Trevon Brazile, both of whom are versatile players inside and outside. Junior D.J. Wagner is also an enjoyable Razorback as he accepts his role off the bench and plays selfless basketball, looking to get others involved. As for the Badgers, Wisconsin has three of the best road wins all year, at Michigan, at Illinois and at Purdue. The Badgers are led by guards John Blackwell and Nick Boyd, both of whom have irrational confidence and attacking/annoying games. What makes Wisconsin most intriguing are the team's stretch bigs, freshman Aleksas Bieliauskas and Australian sophomore Austin Rapp, who got on an all-time heater from three during a semifinal loss to Michigan during the Big Ten Tournament. While Arkansas' athleticism will pose problems for the Badgers, Wisconsin is a team that does not blink when getting behind. Honestly, I am probably most excited about this potential game than any other possible second round contest as it will be a high scoring affair that goes down to the wire.
| | |
4. Something I Don't Like: A Potential Sweet Sixteen Game between #2 Purdue and #3 Gonzaga. These teams met two years ago in the Sweet Sixteen and could very well do so again. Overall, I do not like when the Selection Committee sets up potential rematches that have been recently seen before, with the exception of when Final Four or National Title games could be repeated the following year inside a region. If the Boilermakers and Zags meet again, expect Purdue to handle Gonzaga, which is led by big man Graham Ike, a skilled graduate player who is still undersized and will have his hands full with Purdue's front line. In addition to the 2024 NCAA Tournament, Purdue defeated Gonzaga during the Sweet Sixteen of the 2000 NCAA Tournament.
| | |
5. Pro Prospect to Watch: Freshman AJ Dybantsa, BYU. While the East has Duke's Cam Boozer and Kansas' Darryn Peterson, the West has Acuff and Dybantsa, another candidate to be the #1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. Last week during the Big 12 Tournament Dybantsa broke Kevin Durant's record for most points by a freshman in a tournament game, with 40 points against Kansas State. While Dybantsa is explosive, BYU is less dangerous with upperclassman Richie Saunders out for the season. BYU will play the winner of the First-Four game between Texas and N.C. State. If Texas wins, expect BYU to advance to the second round. If N.C. State wins, don't be surprised if Dybantsa and BYU are one-and-done. Whatever the case, BYU will not likely reach back-to-back Sweet Sixteens as Saunders' presence will be solely missed.
| | |
6. N.C. State Is This Region's Best Hope for a Surprising Sweet Sixteen Run: Will Wade's Wolfpack have been a very inconsistent/disappointing team during his first year in Raleigh, North Carolina. With that said, N.C. State does have experienced players in Darrion Williams, Tre Holloman and Qadir Copeland who have had their share of NCAA Tournament success. If N.C. State beats Texas, the Wolfpack could give BYU and Gonzaga difficult games. With that said, Purdue would likely end an N.C. State run, as was the case two years ago during the Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. As much as Wade rubs me wrong, he is a good coach who doesn't care what it takes to win. Technically though, Wade has never been the head coach in a Sweet Sixteen game as he was suspended during his then LSU team's run during the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Perhaps I am giving Wade too much credit as this N.C. State team has seemingly had urgency issues all year long. 3/17 Note: Well, I was wrong about the Wolfpack, which struggled with the size of Texas and fell by two points on a last-second shot by the Longhorns' Tramon Mark.
| | |
7. Texas Will Suffer the Same First-Four Fate As Last Season: The Longhorns lost to Xavier during the First Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, culminating in the firing of Head Coach Rodney Terry. Ironically, Xavier was coached by Sean Miller, who took the Texas job after getting eliminated by Illinois during the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Regardless of the change at head coach, the Longhorns will not advance out of the First Four. 3/17 Note: Well, I was wrong about the Longhorns, which did just enough to survive N.C. State. The Longhorns will have to play better but have a legitimate shot against a BYU team without Richie Saunders.
| | |
8. Something to Watch for: Wisconsin Has Been Arizona's Kryptonite during the NCAA Tournament. The Badgers stopped Arizona from reaching the Final Four with Elite Eight victories during the 2014 and 2015 NCAA Tournaments. Ironically, those Arizona teams were coached by Miller, who is currently at Texas. The Badgers also knocked off a heavily injured #1 seed Arizona during the second round of the 2000 NCAA Tournament. Each tournament Wisconsin has beaten Arizona, the Badgers advanced to the Final Four. Could Wisconsin beat Arizona for a fourth time? It the Badgers get to the Sweet Sixteen, expect a competitive game, with Arizona finally getting over the hump, though the Wildcats did beat the Badgers as a #8 seed during the first round of the 2006 NCAA Tournament.
| | | |
9. This Bracket Lacks the Small-School Sizzle of a Potential Cinderella. In other words, don't be surprised if the Sweet Sixteen is pretty chalk with a #1, #2, #3 and/or #4/#5 seed. While #12 seed High Point was respectable against Purdue during its first NCAA Tournament game last year, it is playing another Big Ten team in #5 Wisconsin that seems to have a lot of momentum #13 Hawai'i will need #4 Arkansas to have a tremendously awful game to pull an upset. #3 Gonzaga rarely lets its opponents be competitive in the first round and will take care of #14 Kennesaw State. As written earlier, #11 N.C. State represents the best chance for a lower seed to get out of the opening weekend in the West Region. Remember N.C. State was a #11 seed two years ago when it made a run to the Final Four. That will not happen this year for the Wolfpack, which got hot during the 2024 ACC Tournament and carried that over to the NCAAs, though N.C. State could get to the Sweet Sixteen if clicking.
| | |
10. The Other First Round Games Are A Mystery: Admittedly, I have not seen #7 Miami (FL) and #9 Utah State play this year, though I am rooting for both teams to advance. Miami (FL) has had an incredible first season under Jai Lucas, who was an assistant at Duke for most of last season. The Hurricanes will play a Missouri team which I saw once this season, an absolutely drubbing that was put on the Tigers by my Fighting Illini. Missouri Head Coach Dennis Gates has apparently turned the Tigers around, though he is only 1-3 in NCAA Tournament games. As for Villanova, long gone are the days of Jay Wright. First-year Head Coach Kevin Willard had a strong first year with the Wildcats, though the way he left Maryland last year as the Terps were in the Sweet Sixteen last NCAA Tournament was quite classless. In other words, go Utah State, which is coached by Jarred Calhoun, who could be in line for a bigger job after the NCAA Tournament.
| | |
Be sure to revisit The College Basketball Nostaglic before the tip off Thursday's NCAA Tournament games to see my predictions for the West Region.
Predictions for the First Round
- Arizona beats Long Island.
- Utah State beats Villanova.
- Wisconsin beats High Point.
- Arkansas beats Hawaii.
- Texas beats BYU.
- Gonzaga beats Kennesaw State.
- Miami (FL) beats Missouri.
- Purdue beats Queens (NC).
Predictions for the Second Round
- Arizona beats Utah State.
- Wisconsin beats Arkansas.
- Texas beats Gonzaga.
- Purdue beats Miami (FL).
Predictions for the Sweet Sixteen
- Arizona beats Wisconsin.
- Purdue beats Texas.
Predictions for the Elite Eight
- Arizona beats Purdue (Arizona will win the national championship, defeating Michigan and St. John's).
RSS Feed